It’s that strange part of the year when prices continue to increase in-store, and we collectively find ourselves purchasing average fruit for the family at astronomical prices. However, as growers, we find this very frustrating as we get our best fruit for average prices, and this is simply due to the supply and demand factors at play.
So, what’s expected to happen in the coming weeks for Berries?
Blueberries: Due to ongoing weather issues, we are heading into an earlier-than-expected lull, with NZ volumes expected to be much lower in the coming weeks. Interestingly, we are starting to see some volume coming from the Coffs Coast region with Opi (1111s), and whilst it’s not a large amount, it’s reflective of what we are expecting this season. Whilst we do expect some rain in the coming months. The three-monthly long-range forecasts for Rainfall highlight that we expect a drier-than-normal autumn. Whilst the coastal areas are forecasting a slightly higher % (compared to the rest of the country), we are expected to have a much better pollination season vs 2022 and 2021. This means we could have a harvest like in 2018/2019, where lower rain and warmer weather bought on earlier volume.
We expect this to ramp up in 10-12 weeks, whereas, in 2022, we didn’t see much volume until late August / early September.
Raspberries: There has been a lot more volume compared to last year over the last four weeks, but this seems to slow down with the cooler Tasmanian weather slowing down the production of Raspberries; we can expect prices to increase until the Coffs Coast region starts producing more volume in the coming 6-8 weeks. Volumes are slowly increasing out of the region. With the Yarra Valley experiencing some warmer days and nights in the coming two weeks, we could see an uptick in the region, but also pulling forward production for 7-10 days. They will be experiencing a hot (day and nights) finish to March, which may not be unseasonal for a day or two, but for the length of time vs median that is forecasted, it is very unseasonal. Expect prices to increase in the coming week, but it will flat line soon as demand in retail will dictate whether it can push any higher.
Strawberries: Whilst the market has been expecting additional fruit in the next week, it feels like it could be a few days behind the original forecast. Several growers have indicated much fruit on the plant; however, the size has significantly dropped off with plants starting to tire. So, what we were expecting in additional fruit might be offset by the lack of size. In addition, we expect demand for Strawberries to remain high as they will be the cheapest in the berry category. This may force the price up a little faster than what we expect, as there will be many people trading into the category. We should see ok volumes and a flattening of the price before we see farms start to turn over blocks in preparation for next year and the wait before the QLD season starts. There are also some plant supply issues that will slow up the start of the QLD season, which will also see a long lull between May and July as planting is well behind where the state has expected to be at this point.
Blackberries: Falling away quickly after some record weeks, we are in a similar transition to the Coffs Coast region that we see in Raspberries. Expect prices to push up a little more and ultimately, demand will dictate how high retail will go in the coming weeks as we wait for northern production to start again.